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49ers vs. Falcons Betting Lines

What: 2012-13 NFC Conference Championship Game
Who: San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
When: 3:00pm ET. Sunday, January 20, 2013
Where: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA.
TV: FOX

After a surprising offensive display against the Packers in the NFC divisional round, the San Francisco 49ers have earned a shot at the Falcons for the NFC conference championship. The Niners put up 45 points against a Packers defense which ranked 11th in the NFL, giving up just 21 points per game during the regular season. As a result, they come into Atlanta as road favorites, currently in the range of -4 to -5 points at all of the major online sportsbooks.

The NFC #1 seed Atlanta Falcons beat the Seahawks 30-28 last week, after scoring a 49 yard field goal with just 8 seconds remaining on the clock. This came right after a Marshawn Lynch rushing TD that gave the Seahawks a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. After a couple of quick completions by Matt Ryan, the Falcons were in field goal range, and 37 year old kicker Matt Bryant sealed the deal.

Despite the win, and despite the #1 seed, the Falcons are fairly sizable dogs. Considering it’s a home game for them, +5 would translate to about +8 on a neutral field. Lets take a look at all of the latest 49ers vs. Falcons betting lines, and see if we can find some value.

49ers vs. Falcons Betting Lines: Spread, Money Line & Over/Under

The 49ers vs. Falcons betting lines opened with the Niners favored by -3. Since then, most of the money has been going to SF, thus the spread continues to get wider. On the heels of two high scoring games last week, the over/under has come up 2 points since it opened.

Both of the sportsbooks below offer online & mobile betting. They also welcome US bettors and Visa for deposits.

My Pick: Falcons +5 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook

Bovada.lv
US Friendly
JustBet.cx
US Friendly
Spread
Money
Spread
Money
49ers
Falcons
-5 (-110)
+5 (-110)
-220
+180
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
-200
+170
Over/Under
o49 (-110) / u49 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)

Niners vs. Atlanta Seasonal Stats

San Francisco 49ers: 12-4-1 overall, 10-7 ATS, 5-3 away, 5-3 ATS away, 8-6 ATS favorite, 10-6-1 O/U

Atlanta Falcons: 14-3 overall, 9-7-1 ATS, 8-1 home, 4-5 ATS home, 2-0 ATS underdog, 6-11 O/U
 

 

49ers/Falcons Game & Betting Analysis

During the regular season, the San Francisco 49ers defense ranked 3rd in total yards allowed (294.4 YPG). They ranked 4th against the pass, and 4th against the run. Even more importantly, they ranked 2nd in the NFL giving up just 17.1 points per game.

On offense, the Niners are a bit Jekyll & Hyde. They’re capable of putting up 13 or 35 on any given day, making them a tough team to make predictions on. With that said, as Kaepernick continues to gain experience, we have to expect more consistency out of this offense. All Kaepernick did last week against the Packers was run for 181 yards and 2 TD’s, and throw two more TD’s to Michael Crabtree.

That game and Kaepernick’s ridiculous performance is having an affect on the 49ers/Falcons betting line this week, and I think it’s adding value for Falcons bettors. In my opinion, the line on this game should be much closer, and I think there are too many public bettors drinking the 49ers Kool-Aid. That’s great, because those of us picking the Falcons can get +5 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook on a #1 seed, 8-1 home team.

While everyone is talking about the 49ers defense, too many are forgetting that the Falcons defense is very good at the most important statistic. While they give up a lot of yards (rank 24th), they’re very good in the red zone – ranking 5th in the league giving up just 18.7 points per game. I don’t care if the opponent gains 1000 yards, as long as you keep them out of the end zone.

Although the Falcons defense can run hot or cold depending on the day, this is the NFC Conference Championship game. The Atlanta defense will pumped to match the Niners D, and a motivated defense is exactly what they need in this game.

I expect the 49ers to run, run, run, and the Falcons to be passing the ball. The Niners pass defense is so good that I expect Matt Ryan to have a mediocre day at best. However, if the Falcons can continue their seasonal trend and limit the 49ers to more field goals than TD’s, this game will be close all the way to the end.

Both of these teams have enough playmakers that it’s difficult to predict the impact players in this game. In general terms I think the Falcons are going to rely mostly on Roddy White and Julio Jones, and less on TE Tony Gonzalez. I also don’t see RB Michael Turner having a big game, but he could be good for a short yardage TD somewhere along the way.

SF vs. ATL Point Spread: Odds & Free Pick

– Best 49ers Point Spread: -4 (-110) at JustBet.cx
– Best Falcons Point Spread: +5 (-110) at Bovada.lv

Is it going to be close? Yeah, I think it will. But, if you’re going to give me 5 points in this situation, I’m going to take it. In fact, I’d be taking the Falcons on the spread all the way down to +3, making this my favorite bet of the weekend.

49ers vs. Falcons Money Line

– Best 49ers Money Line: -200 at JustBet.cx
– Best Falcons Money Line: +180 at Bovada.lv

Although I’m taking the points in this game, I might bet 1/2 unit on the Falcons money line as well. At +180, I think we have some decent value on this wager. They’re the home team, with an underrated defense who will be motivated to play their best. I haven’t placed this bet yet, but I probably will as long as the money line stays where it is. If it goes to +190 I’ll jump on it without thinking. If it drops to +170 I’ll probably skip the Falcons money line.

At -200 on the road, I don’t see value on the 49ers money line. I don’t think they win this road game often enough to make this a smart wager, so I recommend staying away from it.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.


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