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49ers Road Favorites Over Packers in NFC Wild Card Round

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Preview

When: Sunday, January 5th 2014 at 4:40pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Watch: Live on FOX

The San Francisco 49ers (12-4) finished 2nd in the NFC West behind the Seahawks and they come into this NFC Wild Card Game as a small favorite over the Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) at Lambeau Field where it’s expected to be one of the coldest games in history.

Green Bay rarely ever has a problem selling tickets to any game let alone a playoff game, but because of the bitter cold weather it has been revealed that GB needed an extension to sell-out the remaining tickets or risk facing a TV blackout in the Wisconsin area.

49ers @ Packers Spread, ML & O/U

Bet on SF vs. GB at Bovada (US Allowed)!

The Nines are the only road team that’s a favorite in the wild card round this weekend. San Fran is a –2.5 point favorite and this line should stay steady the rest of the week. The over/under is 46.5 points and we may see movement if it’s snowing on Sunday morning.

Why San Francisco Will Win

San Fran ended the regular season with the 3rd ranked rushing offense (137.6 RYPG). Frank Gore has 276 carries for 1128 yards and 9 TD’s, Colin Kaepernick has 92 carries for 524 yards and 4 TD’s and Kendall Hunter has 78 carries for 358 yards and 3 TD’s.

Green Bay has had problems stopping the run all season (125 RYPG – 25th). Opposing RB’s have rushed for 100+ yards on the Packers front seven in five of the last six regular season games for GB and it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to stop the SF 3-headed monster.

These two NFC teams met in week 1 of the regular season and Kaepernick was nearly perfect. He finished the game going 27/39 on his passing attempts for 412 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 TO’s. He should have another big game, but it won’t be as good as week 1.

The Packers secondary is still amongst the worst in the NFL (247.2 PYPG – 24th), but the problem in this game is the weather and it’ll be hard to throw the football in the bitter cold. That’s why I expect the Niners to focus on their run game rather than airing it out.

Why Green Bay Will Win

Without Rodgers the Packers wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. He was back at QB in the regular season finale against the Bears in a must-win game and he led his team down the field in the final minute to give the Packers a hard fought 33-28 victory in Chicago.

He wasn’t perfect in his 1st game back, as he ended up going 25/39 for 318 passing yards, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He also played well in SF earlier in the season. He finished that game 21/37 for 333 passing yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT, but it didn’t turn into a win for GB.

It’s important not to downplay the weather, as it’s expected to be well below freezing. San Fran has played in two games in the cold weather (Under 40F) and has performed well, but playing in a playoff game at Lambeau is going to be a test for this SF team.

Players to Watch

Anquan Boldin has 85 receptions for 1179 receiving yards and 7 TD’s and he has been extremely good down the stretch. His biggest game of the season was in week 1 against GB where he ended up catching 13 passes for 208 receiving yards and 1 TD.

Rodgers can’t do it all against SF, which was evident in week 1. GB only rushed for 63 yards (1 TD) against SF in that game. Last week Lacy and Starks combined for 33 carries, 154 rushing yards and 1 TD. If they put up similar numbers GB will be in a good spot to win.

SF vs. GB Predictions

About 60% of the point spread action is on the Niners right now, which doesn’t surprise me. San Fran has won six on a row and the public likes looking at that. However, if you look at those wins they were against WAS, STL, SEA, TB, ATL and ARI.

I feel that the Packers will rally around Rodgers and pick up the win. This is going to be a close game and I expect to see at least one lead change in the final quarter, but with this game being played in sub-zero weather at Lambeau I’m betting on GB to cover.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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