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2016 NFL Playoffs: AFC Divisional Round Odds, Preview and Picks

THE two AFC divisional round playoff match-ups will feature the Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots on Saturday and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Chiefs advanced with a 30-0 win against the Texans and the Steelers were able to move past the wild card round with an 18-16 win against the Bengals – both teams won the road.

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Chiefs vs. Patriots betting lines and predictions

Chiefs vs. Patriots Playoffs BettingWhen: Saturday, January 16th 2016 at 4:35pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Watch: CBS

The Chiefs (12-5) didn’t do much offensively against the Texans, but their special teams and defense were great. The Patriots were resting up last week and Bill Belichick will ensure his team doesn’t make the same mistakes Houston made. I believe the bookmakers have overreacted to the Chiefs win and we’re now getting a great line on NE.

Reports today are stating Jeremy Maclin is unlikely to play and if he does, he’ll simply be a decoy. That’s bad news for KC, as the only other big threat in the pass game is TE Travis Kelce and he hasn’t been overly consistent. Kelce had 8 receptions for 128 yards in the wild card round, but the Patriots have been one of the best teams at covering TEs this season.

The Chiefs score 25.3 PPG (9th) and average 127.8 RYPG (6th), but they only average 203.4 PYPG (30th). Jamaal Charles is injured, but KC have still had success on the ground with Spencer Ware and Knile Davis. Surprisingly, the Patriots have a top 10 defense – they allow an average of 19.7 PPG (10th), 98.8 RYPG (9th) and 240.7 PYPG (17th).

Kansas City will live and die by their defense, which is allowing 17.9 PPG (3rd), 231.1 PYPG (9th) and 98.2 RYPG (8th). They forced Brian Hoyer into five turnovers, but Tom Brady won’t suffer the same fate. Brady has too many weapons at his disposal and KC are going to be without their two best offensive weapons. Bet on the Patriots to win and cover against the spread.

Steelers vs. Broncos betting lines and predictions

Steelers-vs-Broncos-PlayoffsWhen: Sunday, January 17th 2016 at 4:40pm ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Watch: CBS

A few days ago I would have loved to get a big price on the Steelers (11-6) money line against the Broncos (12-4). However, that’s no longer the case, as the Steelers suffered some big injuries in the win over the Bengals. DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown are unlikely to play, plus Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.

Peyton Manning has been announced as the starter. Sure, he has experience and appears healthy, but he has been an interception machine this season. The Broncos offense only averages 22.2 PPG (19th) and 355.5 YPG (16th). We’ll likely see Manning air it out quite a bit, as the Steelers allow 271.9 PYPG (30th) compared to 91.2 RYPG (5th). Pittsburgh allow 19.9 PPG (11th).

Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will need to come up big against the weak Steelers secondary. If Manning can avoid the turnovers, he’ll put up big numbers. Denver also have the best defense in the NFL – ranking 4th in points allowed (18.5 PPG), 1st in passing yards allowed (199.6 PYPG) and 3rd in rushing yards allowed (83.6 RYPG).

The Steelers score 26.4 PPG (5th), but where will the offense come from if Brown and Williams can’t play? Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton have stepped up in small doses, but they haven’t produced like Brown. Denver are 6-2 at home and while I don’t expect either team to contend for the Super Bowl, the Broncos will win and cover the point spread as favorites.

I’m betting on both favorites to cover ATS in the AFC divisional round. I’m also going to parlay both favorites on the point spread and on the money line. The money line parlay will be for two units. You can always expect the unexpected in the NFL playoffs, but this round in the AFC seems real easy, especially now that the Chiefs and Steelers are banged up after the wild card round.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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