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2016 Kentucky Derby Odds, Post Positions and Predictions

2016 Kentucky DerbyWhen: Saturday, May 7th 2016 at 6:34 PM ET
Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
Watch: NBC

IT’S time for America’s biggest and most prestigious horse race. The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday evening, but NBC coverage will begin at 4:00 PM ET. Nyquist has drawn favoritism in the betting markets, but there’s definitely value across the board, including multiple contenders paying over 10/1 odds.

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Odds to win the Kentucky Derby 2016

*Information listed below (Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Trainer and Odds)

#1: Trojan Nation (Aaron Gryder & Patrick Gallagher) 66/1
#2: SuddenBreakingNews (Luis Quinonez & Donnie Von Hemel) 20/1
#3: Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr. & Steven Asmussen) 12/1
#4: Mo Tom (Corey Lanerie & Thomas Amoss) 22/1
#5: Gun Runner (Florent Geroux & Steven Asmussen) 9/1
#6: My Man Sam (Irad Ortiz Jr. & Chad Brown) 20/1
#7: Oscar Nominated (Julien Leparoux & Michael Maker) 66/1
#8: Lani (Yukata Take & Mikio Matsunaga) 28/1
#9: Destin (Javier Castellano & Todd Pletcher) 14/1
#10: Whitmore (Victor Espinoza & Ron Moquett) 18/1
#11: Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux & J. Keith Desormeaux) 8/1
#12: Tom’s Ready (Brian Hernandez Jr. & Dallas Stewart) 40/1
#13: Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez & Doug O’Neill) 3/1
#14: Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado & Kiaran McLaughlin) 8/1
#15: Outwork (John Velazquez & Todd Pletcher) 16/1
#16: Shagaf (Joel Rosario & Chad Brown) 28/1
#17: Mor Spirit (Gary Stevens & Bob Baffert) 14/1
#18: Majesto (Emisael Jaramillo & Gustavo Delgado) 33/1
#19: Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez & Dale Romans) 14/1
#20: Danzing Candy (Mike Smith & Clifford Sise Jr.) 20/1

Will Nyquist win the Kentucky Derby to remain undefeated?

The morning line favorite has won the Kentucky Derby the last three years (American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb). Casual fans will pile money on Nyquist at the betting window this week. Should handicappers follow the trend or look for value elsewhere in the market?

Nyquist is undefeated (7 Wins) and his last six wins have all been graded stakes races. This year the colt has won the San Vicente Stakes (G2) in February and the Florida Derby (G1) in April. Nyquist is versatile, but it’s likely Gutierrez will push the pace early to avoid any potential traffic.

In the Florida Derby, Nyquist went wire to wire for the victory and it wasn’t close down the stretch. He seemed to slow down a bit in the final furlongs and I question whether one of the contenders in the Kentucky Derby will be able to catch Nyquist at the longer distance of 1 ¼ miles (10 Furlongs).

Best bets for the 2016 Kentucky Derby

Mor Spirit is being tipped to win or at least show by many horse racing experts this week. A winner in three of seven career races, this colt last won earlier this year in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Since the win, Mor Spirit has placed in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

He was beaten by Danzing Candy in the San Felipe Stakes and Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby. Having never finishing worse than second place, I expect a strong result from Mor Spirit. He won’t be able to utilize his speed early from PP #17, but a late kick down the final stretch could win the race.

I also need a piece of Exaggerator in the winners market. I wish we were getting a price north of 10/1 odds, but that’s not the case. Expect the colt to be lined up at the back of the pack early. He’s in a middle gate and Kent Desormeaux has already stated his intentions to take it slow early.

With a lot of deep closers in the race, Desormeaux will have to make his move before it’s too late or he’ll be caught up in traffic. This year, Exaggerator has finishes of 2nd place in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), 3rd place in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and 1st place in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

2016 Kentucky Derby trifecta picks

Why watch the Kentucky Derby unless you have some exotic bets to cheer on.

I have to ride my picks with my trifecta and I’ve also added Mohaymen to the mix.

Sure, drawing PP #20 wasn’t ideal, but Danzing Candy is one of the best horses in the field. His price is getting better by the day, as bettors look elsewhere after the post position draw. I don’t think he has enough in him to win, but he has raced well enough to be in my superfecta this weekend.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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