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2015 MLB regular season win totals best bets

Bet on the Chicago White Sox season win totalI love this time of the year. The NBA and NHL playoffs are starting soon; March Madness is next week and most importantly – the MLB regular season starts in a few weeks.

Apart from World Series futures, regular season win totals are the most popular MLB futures market.

For those that have never bet on MLB regular season win totals – they’re very simple. A team will have a win total assigned to them and our job is to predict whether the team will win more games (over) or fewer games (under) than the assigned total.

My three best bets in the market are the Orioles over 82.5 games, White Sox over 81.5 games and Padres under 84.5 games.

Bovada.lv has released win totals for every MLB team and they’re all listed at the bottom of this article.

Baltimore Orioles present best value in the market

I may be in the minority, but I’m convinced that the Baltimore Orioles regular season win total is too low. In the last three seasons the Orioles have won 96 games (2014), 85 games (2013) and 93 games (2012), while making the playoffs twice.

There is some room for concern, as the Orioles lost Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller. Baltimore led the majors in home runs in 2014 (211), but Cruz and Markakis combined for 54 of those home runs and the O’s didn’t sign anyone to make up for that.

Baltimore still have a great core that includes Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. Machado and Wieters both suffered season-ending injuries last season – if they can remain healthy the Orioles will be in good shape.

The main reason I expect the O’s to go over their win total is because of the starting rotation. Baltimore have six potential starters in Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Chen (16), Norris (15), Tillman (13) and Gonzalez (10) all recorded double-digits in wins last year – the first time four starters on the O’s have done that since 1997. The AL East is going to be tougher this season, but the Orioles are still an 85+ win team.

Chicago White Sox will easily exceed season win total

The White Sox had a down year in 2014 and they finished 4th in the AL Central with 73 wins. So, why am I confident that Chicago will win over 81.5 games during the MLB regular season? The main reason is because of the incredible off-season they put together.

Chicago brought in over a dozen players, including Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Samardzija and David Robertson. The batting order could still use some more depth, but sandwiching LaRoche and Cabrera between Jose Abreu has improved the line-up a lot.

The biggest additions were Samardzija, Robertson and Zach Duke. Samardzija and Chris Sale will provide a great 1-2 punch at the top of the starting rotation, Robertson is a legitimate closer and Duke will provide some needed depth to the bullpen.

I expect the White Sox to surpass the Indians and Royals in the AL Central. The season hinges on pitching and whether or not Abreu can reproduce his stats (.317 BA, 36 HR’s and 107 RBI’s), but if all goes well the White Sox will challenge the Tigers.

San Diego Padres are going to struggle to win 80 games

San Diego haven’t won over 80 games since they went 90-72 back in 2010. In the last four seasons the Padres have won 71 games (2011), 76 games (2012), 76 games (2013) and 77 games (2014). It doesn’t help that the Padres are in the tough NL West.

There is reason for optimism in San Diego, but let’s be realistic – the SD win total shouldn’t be higher than 80.5 games. The turnover has been insane during the off-season. Only two starters from 2014 will be starting in 2015 – Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso.

The Padres added a lot of talent, including the likes of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Will Myers, James Shield, Will Middlebrooks, Derek Norris and Brandon Morrow. The problem with the turnover is that the Padres are going to take a few months to gel as a team.

A slow start could kill their chances of winning 80+ games fairly quickly. San Diego went all-in this off-season, but it won’t be enough for them to make the playoffs and I don’t expect them to even win 80 games in the NL West with the Dodgers and Giants.

Complete 2015 MLB regular season win totals over/under odds

The three picks above are my best bets in the market, but I posted the odds for every team below.

The Texas Rangers are a team that’ll go under their win total of 77.5 games. After finishing with the worst record in the AL in 2014 – the Rangers are in a bad situation again, as the Angels, Athletics, Mariners and Astros are all tough teams in the AL West.

Texas will rely on Yu Darvish, Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder to win games, but an injury to one of these three players will basically end the Rangers season. The starting rotation, bullpen and batting order have many holes that haven’t been filled.

Philadelphia’s win total is too low as well – even though they’re likely going to be fighting in the basement of the NL. The Phillies won 73 games last season and now their win total is 67.5 games. They have enough talent to win 70+ games again in 2015.

One concern with the Phillies is they get off to a slow start and decide to tank by trading away Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. However, with a hot start in the weak NL East the Phillies will soar over their win total.

The 2015 MLB regular season win totals betting lines for every team are as followed:

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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