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2015 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions and best bets

2015 Kentucky Derby Race Preview

When: Saturday, May 2nd 2015 at 5:30pm ET
Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
Watch: NBC

THE 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Post positions have been drawn and the betting odds have been updated. It’s now time to put everything together and finalize my staking plan in the “Run for the Roses”.

Will one of the Bob Baffert-trained colts – American Pharoah and Dortmund — win the race as expected? Or can one of the four Todd Fletcher-trained colts – Carpe Diem, Materiality, Stanford and Itsaknockout — steal the show?

There are a lot of questions to be answered in what has been labelled one of the deepest Kentucky Derby races in years.

I expect betting numbers to be up this year because of the deep field. Last year, $130.5 million was wagered on the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs – down 2.2 percent from 2013 ($133.5 million), which was the most ever wagered on the race.

Kentucky Derby Bovada Free BetHere’s a list of the runners, latest betting odds, trainers and jockeys in the Kentucky Derby.

The odds are from Bovada.lv and Bodog.eu – both bookmakers have the same lines, but cater to bettors in different countries.

Bovada is for our American bettors and Bodog is for our Canadian bettors. Both bookies offer sign-up bonuses to increase your betting bankroll for the biggest horse race of 2015.

Get a $250 Kentucky Derby free bet at Bovada.lv if you live in the United States.

Alternatively, Canadians can get a $100 free bet on the Kentucky Derby at Bodog.eu.

2015 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds & Post Positions

Post Position
Horse & Sire
Trainer & Jockey
Betting Odds
PP #1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Street Sense
James Cassidy
Elvis Trujillo
50/1
PP #2
Carpe Diem
Giant's Causeway
Todd Pletcher
Jean Velazquez
9/1
PP #3
Materiality
Afleet Alex
Todd Pletcher
Javier Castellano
14/1
PP #4
Tencendur
Warrior's Reward
George Weaver
Manuel Franco
50/1
PP #5
Danzig Moon
Malibu Moon
Mark Casse
Julien Leparoux
50/1
PP #6
Mubtaahij
Dubawi
Michael De Kock
Christophe Soumillon
14/1
PP #7
El Kabeir
Scat Daddy
John Terranova
Calvin Borel
33/1
PP #8
Dortmund
Big Brown
Bob Baffert
Martin Garcia
13/4
PP #9
Bolo
Temple City
Carla Gaines
Rafael Bejarano
33/1
PP #10
Firing Line
Line of David
Simon Callaghan
Gary Stevens
16/1
PP #11
Stanford
Malibu Moon
Todd Pletcher
Florent Geroux
40/1
PP #12
International Star
Fusaichi Pegasus
Michael Maker
Miguel Mena
20/1
PP #13
Itsaknockout
Lemon Drop Kid
Todd Pletcher
Luis Saez
33/1
PP #14
Keen Ice
Curlin
Dale Romans
Kent Desormeaux
50/1
PP #15
Frosted
Tapit
Kiaran McLaughlin
Joel Rosario
16/1
PP #16
War Story
Northern Afleet
Thomas Amoss
Joe Talamo
50/1
PP #17
Mr. Z
Malibu Moon
Darrell Lukas
Ramon Vazquez
40/1
PP #18
American Pharoah
Pioneerof the Nile
Bob Baffert
Victor Espinoza
11/4
PP #19
Upstart
Flatter
Richard Violette
Jose Ortiz
22/1
PP #20
Far Right
Notional
Ronald Moquett
Mike Smith
33/1

Kentucky Derby top contenders 2015

There’s no clear-cut favorite to win the “two most exciting minutes in sports” this year. Last year, California Chrome firmed into a 5/2 favorite on race day and won by 1¾ lengths. Here’s a breakdown of the top contenders in the 141st Kentucky Derby.

What’s not to like about American Pharoah? The colt had a poor maiden race last August, but he has since won the 2014 Del Mar Futurity (G1), 2014 FrontRunner (G1), 2015 Rebel Stakes (G2) and 2015 Arkansas Derby (G1).

However, the colt hasn’t really been tested yet and that’s the major concern everyone has.

American Pharoah is a brilliant three-year-old and deserving of favoritism in the winners market. He hasn’t posted the fastest Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), but he’s quick and the distance won’t be a problem. He’ll also be ridden by Espinoza – a two-time Derby winner.

The colt will start from post position #18 – the last time a horse won the Derby from PP #18 was in 1982 (Gato Del Sol). However, the outside has been the spot to be in recent years, as three of the last four winners have started in PP #15 or higher.

Two thoroughbreds have won the Derby from PP #8 since 2006 – Barbaro and Mine That Bird — can Dortmund make it three? This three-year-old colt has a best BSF of 106, which ranks third in the race behind Materiality and Upstart.

Dortmund has firmed in from 9/2 two weeks ago to 13/4 at the time of publishing.

The colt has a 6-0 record, including wins in the 2014 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), 2015 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), 2015 San Felipe Stakes (G2) and 2015 Santa Anita Derby (G1). Dortmund is strong, beaten tough competition and can come off the pace if needed.

The last horse to win from PP #2 was Affirmed in 1978, which happens to be the last horse to win the Triple Crown. I’m not saying Carpe Diem is of the same quality as Affirmed, but this colt has a lot to like, including his huge frame and long strides.

He just won gamely at Keeneland in the 2015 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) against the likes of Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho.

Carpe Diem is 4-1 in his career, including graded wins in the 2014 Breeders Futurity (G1) and 2015 Tampa Bay Derby (G2). I have one problem with this colt and that’s his post position. He isn’t fast enough to stay ahead of the pack and he’ll likely get boxed in.

Best 2015 Kentucky Derby sleepers and long shots

Materiality is undefeated (3-0), but he has only raced this year. The colt looked great in the 2015 Florida Derby (G1) where he beat Upstart and he won the Islamorada against Stanford. Materiality has the highest BSF (110) in the Derby, but experience is a concern.

I don’t expect Upstart to win the Run for the Roses, but I’ll be using the colt in my exacta and trifecta. He posted the second best BSF (108) and has raced against tough company. Upstart won the 2015 Holy Bull (G2), but fell short the last two times out.

Upstart finished 2nd to Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and 2nd to Materiality in the Florida Derby (G1).

Mubtaahij has garnered a lot of international action, but I don’t rate him as high as the locals. He won four of five starts at Meydan, including a 1st last time out in the UAE Derby (G2). He had a perfect trip though, and that’s not likely to happen at Churchill.

Another horse of interest is Firing Line – twice a runner-up to Dortmund in the 2014 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and 2015 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2). He won the 2015 Sunland Derby (G3) last time out and has the speed to contend down the stretch.

I still don’t have a great opinion of Frosted after a slow start to the year. Frosted was an early top contender, but a 2nd place in the 2015 Holy Bull (G2) and 4th place in the 2015 Fountain of Youth (G2) lowered expectations.

However, Frosted had his best run of his career last time out – winning the 2015 Wood Memorial (G1).

If you could name one jockey you hate betting against in the Derby who would it be? Did you say Mr. Borel? Calvin Borel has won three of the last eight Kentucky Derby races, including 2007 (Street Sense), 2009 (Mine That Bird) and 2010 (Super Saver).

Mine That Bird was a 99/2 long shot to win – the biggest priced winner in the Derby since 1913 (Donerail). Borel is riding El Kabeir, who has been worked hard and has four wins in nine starts, including two graded stakes wins this year.

However, distance is going to be a big problem. He fell short in the 2015 Wood Memorial (G1) last time out, as he finished in 3rd place behind Tencendur and Frosted. He’s likely to contend early, but won’t have enough in him down the stretch.

2015 Kentucky Derby staking plan

Bet on Dortmund to win the Kentucky Derby 2015

I have too many unanswered questions about American Pharoah to bet on him. He hasn’t lost since his maiden, but I’ve been more impressed by Dortmund’s prep season. Dortmund lost a shoe and stumbled early in the Santa Anita Derby – yet still won by 4¼ lengths.

I mentioned I don’t expect Upstart to win, but I’ll be betting $20 on him because of the long odds (22/1).

Let’s have some fun now and discuss the bets with some real payouts.

Last year, a $2 exacta paid $340 and a $2 trifecta paid $3424.60 – thanks to Commanding Curve finishing in 2nd place.

That’s unlikely to happen again, but here are my exacta and trifecta predictions.

Exacta picks:

#8, #3, #19 / #8, #3, #19 ($2 exacta box costs $12)

Trifecta picks:

#8, #3, #19 / #8, #3, #19, #2, #18, #10 / #8, #3, #19, #2, #18, #10 ($2 trifecta costs $120)

I’m betting $150 on Dortmund to win and $20 on Upstart to win, which means I’m betting $302 total.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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