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2014 Daytona 500 Betting Lines

NASCAR – 2014 Daytona 500 Race Preview

When: Sunday, February 23rd 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Daytona International Speedway in Florida
Watch: Live on FOX (Radio: MRN)

Last week Denny Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited Race here in Daytona, but that doesn’t mean anything. Drivers are all preparing to battle it out in this year’s Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon, but before that we have the Budweiser Duel #1 and #2 on Thursday.

Rookie Austin Dillon who will be driving the iconic #3 car won the pole position in qualifying this past Sunday. This is the second year in a row that a rookie driver has won the pole position, as Danica Patrick won the pole position and finished the race in 8th place.

Jimmie Johnson & Dale Earnhardt Jr are the Early Favorites

Jimmie Johnson has had success in his career at Daytona. His career average finish position (13.33) is excellent on such a demanding track, but last year was really impressive. Johnson won both Sprint Cup races at Daytona last year (First Time Since 1982).

Between the two restrictor plate tracks (Daytona & Talladega) Johnson had an AFP of 5.00 in four races in 2013. The new Gen-6 car seems to be working for Johnson and I’m sure there will be many handicappers backing Johnson to start the season off with a win.

The last time Earnhardt Jr won a points race at Daytona was a decade ago (2004 Daytona 500). He’s always atop of the odds market for this race. His career AFP (10.30) is incredible and he has finished in 2nd place in this race for two consecutive years now.

Despite his 2nd straight T2 finish in this race he hasn’t led a lap, which is strange and worrisome for fantasy owners. Earnhardt Jr will likely finish near the top, but he isn’t likely to win. These odds are too short, but keep an eye on him in the match-up markets.

Which of the Top Contenders Will Push the Favorites

Matt Kenseth has done well in his career at Daytona. His career AFP is 14.14 in fifty races and he has always performed well when it comes to restrictor plate races. He has won the Dayton 500 twice (2009 & 2012) and he led 86 laps last year before his engine blew.

Tony Stewart had engine problems during qualifying, but there is no denying his success at Daytona. His career AFP (10.60) is great, but he has never won the big race. Stewart’s best Daytona 500 finish is a 2nd in 2004. Last year he finished a disappointing 41st.

Middle of the Pack Drivers to Target

In his last four Sprint Cup point races at Daytona Newman has a 10.25 AFP including two top 5 finishes. Newman finished 5th in last year’s Daytona 500 and he performs well on this track. He has looked good in practice thus far and I expect his odds to shorten.

Greg Biffle only has one win on this track (2003 Pepsi 400), but he has been close to adding to that total. In the last two years Biffle has a 6th place and 3rd place finish in this race. At these odds I’m betting on Biffle E/W, which means I win if he finishes in the top 4.

Long Shot Driver That May Contend

If you want to place a small stake on a huge long shot I’d consider Gilliland at 100/1 odds. He finished 3rd in the 2011 Daytona 500, so he has shown us that he can compete on this track. Last year he was in an accident, but I expect him to contend on Sunday.

2014 Daytona 500 Predictions

Anyone can win these restrictor plate races, which makes them interesting. The odds are always above 10/1 on most drivers. We still have the two qualifying races to determine the complete starting order of the Daytona 500 and those races are tomorrow (Thurs).

I expect some of the middle of the pack drivers to see their odds shorten if they qualify well in the two Budweiser Duel races. I’m on Kenseth and Biffle E/W this weekend in the outright market. I’ll also be looking at the match-up markets once they’re released.

Biffle, Kenseth, Newman and Earnhardt Jr are the four drivers that I’ll be looking to target in the H2H markets. One driver I plan on fading is Tony Stewart. His car doesn’t seem right at the moment and I don’t think Stewart will end up finishing the race on Sunday.

Complete 2014 Daytona 500 Winner Odds

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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