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2013 Kentucky Derby Betting Lines

2013 Kentucky Derby – 139th Run for the Roses

When: Saturday, May 4th 2013
Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
Post Time: 6:24pm ET

The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday at Churchill Downs. This year a new point system was implemented in order to qualify for the race. The competition looks to be tough again this year and we could see another longshot come through after the fastest two minutes in sports.

2013 Kentucky Derby Odds & Post Positions

Post Position (PP)
Horse
Paddy Power (Non-US)
Bovada (USA)
#14Verrazano5/14/1
#16Orb6/14/1
#8Goldencents9/111/2
#3Revolutonary9/110/1
#5Normandy Invasion9/19/1
#12ItsMyLuckyDay13/112/1
#9OverAnalyze12/114/1
#19Javas War15/116/1
#11Lines of Battle17/133/1
#20Vyjack15/114/1
#10Palace Malice26/125/1
#17Will Take Charge21/120/1
#15Charming Kitten34/125/1
#18Frac Daddy34/140/1
#6Mylute34/116/1
#2Oxbow26/133/1
#1Black Onyx26/150/1
#13Falling Sky41/150/1
#7Giant Finish51/150/1
#4Golden Soul41/150/1

2013 Kentucky Derby Predictions

The field is finalized and twenty 3-yo thoroughbreds are scheduled to race in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. I’ve narrowed my selections down to three horses including two of the top contenders and one sleeper that I think has a legitimate chance to win.

It took Orb four races to win his maiden last year, but after winning his maiden he has won his 3 starts in 2013. Orb won the Gr2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Gr1 Florida Derby, both of which were raced at Gulfstream Park. Orb has improved each race.

Post position isn’t everything in the Derby, which was proven by I’ll Have Another when winning from PP #19 (1st time ever that a hose has won from PP19). However, if you like trends, PP #16 has won the Derby twice since 2000. Orb drew PP #16 today.

Rosario is an excellent jockey and he has won 25% of his races this year. Orb’s best Beyer is 97, which is 7th best in the race, but I don’t think we’ve seen everything that Orb has to offer on the track. Out of the two favorites Orb is more impressive to me and he has also looked great during training sessions.

Goldencents is arguably the most hyped horse heading into the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Rick Pitino has an ownership stake in the horse and Kevin Krigger could become the 1st African American jockey to win the Derby since 1902.

It would be a great story if Goldencents can pull off the victory, but let’s look at the horse now. Goldencents didn’t look good in the Gr2 San Felipe Stakes (4th), but he followed that performance up with a win last month in the Gr1 Santa Anita Derby.

He’ll be best suited with a moderately slow pace, as he has a strong finish. His best Beyer is 105, which is tied for the best in the race with Verrazano. Goldencents is racing out of PP #8, which is one of three PP’s to win the Derby twice since 2000.

Mylute should provide the early speed in the Kentucky Derby, but it’s unlikely that Mylute will be able to hang on for victory, as the competition should outclass him down the stretch. I’ll be betting Mylute E/W, as I think he can hang on for a place.

Rosie Napravnik will try to become the first women jockey to win the Kentucky Derby. She finished 9th in the 2011 Derby, so she has experience in the big race. She’s also extremely tough and I fully expect her to push Mylute for everything he has to offer.

Mylute’s best Beyer is 93, which isn’t amongst the top horses. However, in his last race he finished behind Revolutionary for 2nd place in the Gr2 Louisiana Derby. He has been lightly raced this year (2X) and I think he’s the best amongst the longshots.

Can Todd Pletcher Win the 2013 Kentucky Derby?

One of the many storylines this week is whether or not Pletcher can win his 2nd Kentucky Derby. The HOF trainer has just one win in the Derby, which was in 2010 when Super Saver won. Pletcher will have five horses (25% of the field) in this year’s Derby, which is a new record in this race.

Co-favorite Verrazano will be his best shot to win the race, but Revolutionary and Overanalyze can’t be counted out. Verrazano has only raced in 2013 (4X) and has won all of them including the Gr2 Tampa Bay Derby and Gr1 Wood Memorial Stakes.

Revolutionary has won his L3 starts including the Gr3 Withers Stakes and Gr2 Louisiana Derby this year. Overanalyze has three graded stakes wins with his latest win coming in the Gr1 Arkansas Stakes, but I don’t think he’ll figure into the T3 on Saturday.

Palace Malice and Charming Kitten are the two other horses that Pletcher has in the Derby, but they’re both longshots and I don’t expect either of them to do well. Pletcher will have a great shot at his 2nd Kentucky Derby win, but I’m not on any of his horses.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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